This region has nearly 29,000 acres of Concord production. With 2011 weather conditions contributing to above average fruiting potential, production should have been 175,000 tons. Such production would yield nearly 10 million gallons of 68 brix concentrate, conservatively valued at 150 million dollars. A more aggressive valuation of the total crop would reach 200 million dollars.

An unseasonably warm March had many vineyards in the Lake Erie grape belt at the bud swell stage or further when the first of up to 11 freeze events occurred on March 27. Of the 11 freeze events, two events have been identified as causing the majority of primary and secondary bud damage. The first freeze event on March 27, where lows ranged from 18 to 26 F caused significant primary bud damage along the lake plain and vineyards on the escarpment located well beyond the moderating effects of Lake Erie. Initial damage ratings of primary bud loss ranged from 0% along the lakeshore to 14.2 on the escarpment. The second critical freeze event occurred over the weekend of April 28 and 29 resulting in a collective primary bud loss of 4.53% to up to 100%.

Figure 1. Photo of 100% primary bud mortality in the Lake Erie Region.

Many vineyards with delayed development that escaped major damage during the March 27 freeze event incurred major damage over the April 28 and 29 event. Ratings at this point in time have not taken into account secondary bud damage. (See map)
Bud Loss and Impact on Crop. In the scenario of 40% primary bud loss, we would expect a 30% reduction in crop size assuming an average performance of secondaries. Local climate variation and multiple frost events have made an accurate assessment slightly more challenging.  Despite some very cold temperatures damage varies from less than 5% primary loss to 100% damage. Secondary bud damage is also severe in localized areas.

Assuming, overall, a 30% reduction in crop size the total direct economic loss for the industry would range between $45 and $60 million. Gross farmer loss would be approximately $13 million. That total loss is reduced by the potential for crop insurance claims. It will take some more research to try and get a handle on the potential value of crop insurance claims. It will depend significantly on block identification and volatility. With total average estimated crop loss at 50%, the average grower with CAT coverage would not have a claim. However, we know the losses are acute in certain blocks and growers have the ability to separate blocks and insure for higher levels of coverage with buy up plans.

Regional Economic Impact. This region should be aware of the impact this direct loss may have. There is a multiplier effect on these losses that will change spending patterns for farmers, processor employees and farm workers. Changes in spending patterns can impact small business revenue and sales tax. A small county in New York State actually uses the milk price as a factor in budgeting sales tax revenue. Keep in mind that business expenses do not result in sales tax. Any impact on sales tax that a county sees from lower milk prices or grape crop would be due to a multiplier. A multiplier effect in this scenario is a community effect, see figure one for illustrative purposes1.

Another factor in this economic loss is the global nature of the business. This loss is not shouldered entirely by the region. Using bulk juice as a valuation, rather than retail price does focus on what value this region adds. Even so, shareholders, distributors and others will feel some of this economic loss.